ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR PEACE: ENHANCING NIGERIA’S NATIONAL CONFLICT EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SYSTEM (NCEWERS)

Ezekiel Ephraim Pati Osiriehegbe — (Page 143-158)

Abstract

The growing complexity of violent conflict in Africa calls for innovative approaches to early
warning and early response (EWER). Nigeria’s National Conflict Early Warning and Response System (NCEWERS) has advanced conflict prevention through community-based data gathering, situation room analysis, and multi-stakeholder collaboration.

Nonetheless, persistent challenges such as delayed responses, data overload, and limited predictive capacity have hindered its success. This paper examines how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can improve NCEWERS and similar systems across Africa by improving the accuracy, timeliness, and scale of conflict detection. As Wambua argues in a Kenyan context, “AI can effectively analyse vast amounts of historical, current and emerging data to systematically identify conflict triggers and patterns for effective conflict prevention”.

Furthermore, it submits that AI has an unmatched capacity to sustain real-time sharing of information among the relevant actors in conflict prevention infrastructure. This guarantees timely responses to check the escalation of conflicts. Using secondary data from institutional reports, academic studies, and lessons learned from projects, the study examines AI tools like Machine Learning (ML) for trend analysis, natural language processing for social media monitoring, and predictive modelling for hotspot identification. While AI offers faster processing and improved forecasting, some concerns remain around algorithmic bias, data privacy, ethical use, and the risk of sidelining local knowledge.

The paper advocates for a hybrid model that combines AI-enabled analytics with human judgment and community insights, embedded within robust institutional response mechanisms. It further proposes recommendations, including investing in tailored AI research, fostering regional cooperation, developing ethical frameworks, strengthening capacity building, and prioritising community involvement. This approach positions Nigeria to lead in AI-enhanced peacebuilding on the continent, bridging the warning–response gap and ensuring that early alerts translate into timely, meaningful actions toward sustainable peace.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Conflict Prevention, Early Warning Systems, Hybrid
Model, Peacebuilding